Europeans see euro trumping dollar

The euro could overtake the dollar in global importance in the next five years, a large majority of continental Europeans believe, according to a poll days before Europe’s monetary union reaches its 10th birthday.

The striking display of faith in the euro, revealed in an FT/Harris poll published on Monday, follows recent rises in the currency’s value that have brought it close to parity with the pound.

On a trade-weighted basis the euro hit a record high this month, raising fears about the impact on struggling exporters, although it has weakened since.

The survey showed that Europeans would welcome a further expansion of the eurozone beyond its 15 members, but highlighted fears among consumers that the euro has fuelled inflation – which they believe the European Central Bank has failed to control effectively.

Since its launch on January 1 1999, the euro has grown steadily in international importance, increasing its share of official foreign reserves and its role in capital markets. The value of euro notes in circulation has also surpassed the value of dollar bills.

According to the FT/Harris poll, some 70 per cent of the Spanish and two-thirds of the French agreed “strongly” or “somewhat” with the statement that the currency could overtake the dollar in global importance by 2014. For Germans and Italians the figures were 58 per cent and 62 per cent respectively. Even some 48 per cent of those polled in the US agreed.

Overall, Europeans were deeply gloomy about the economic outlook, with less than a quarter believing that the recession would last less than a year.

The poll was conducted among 6,165 adults in France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US between November 26 and December 8.